Expedited freight remains a critical service when the rapid movement of goods is required. It typically refers to shipments delivered within one to three days, compared to up to 10 business days for standard ground freight.
While the specific percentage of shipments that go as expedited freight are not readily available, the demand for services is significant. The global express delivery market, which includes expedited, was valued at $262.86 billion in 2020 and is projected to reach $484.38 billion by 2030, for a CAGR of 6.4%.
Impending tariffs are one major factor driving demand for expedited freight. One recent example: Canadian shippers using it to speed up transport of goods ahead of 25% tariffs on goods entering the U.S. While the tariffs have been put on hold until March 4 as the U.S., Mexico, and Canada negotiate, companies aren’t willing to risk being caught short and are using expedited freight as a proactive tool.
Expedited freight services are used across modes, from less-than-truckload (LTL) to truckload (TL), air freight, rail, and courier services. The choice depends on the urgency, distance, and nature of the shipment.
We’ll look at different ways 2025 is a pivotal year for expedited freight. In addition to tariffs, major changes to LTL classifications, as well as volatile economic conditions and the freight recession, are influencing factors.
Demand From E-Commerce Growth, Just-in-Time Manufacturing
As consumer expectations for rapid delivery grow, retailers and e-commerce platforms rely more on expedited freight to meet tight shipping windows. This market factor drives increased use of air freight, dedicated trucking, and premium LTL services to ensure fast order fulfillment.
Just-in-time manufacturing (JIT) is the ideal state that organizations look to achieve in order to keep inventory lean and efficient. The goal is to reduce waste by closely matching inventory levels with projected demand, and it often relies on expedited freight to make it happen. Having supplies arrive “just in time” for production avoids the high cost of inventory overhang — and has many other benefits as well.
On-time in-full (OTIF) is a significant driver of expedited freight. Retailers, manufacturers, and shippers use this metric to measure whether deliveries arrive on schedule and with the correct quantity of goods. Walmart, Amazon, Target, and many others impose strict penalties on suppliers that fail to meet OTIF requirements.To avoid chargebacks and maintain vendor relationships, shippers often turn to expedited freight services to meet last-minute OTIF requirements.
Tariffs as an Expedited Freight Driver
A 25% fee on imports is a considerable expense. If the North American tariffs take effect as expected in early March, a $50,000 shipment suddenly costs $62,500 to move from Mexico or Canada to the U.S. Shippers therefore are motivated to take whatever mitigation measures they can, including increasing expedited freight, to get it in ahead of the effective date.
NMFTA Freight Reclassification Coming in July
The National Motor Freight Transportation Association (NMFTA) has been planning for more than a decade to modernize and simplify its freight classification system that determines pricing. The four main factors in the NMFTA classification system are density, handling, stowability, and liability.
The rapid increase in e-commerce volume has brought lots of lightweight but often bulky packages that quickly cube out trucks. For this reason, the NMFTA’s reclassification will focus more on a density-based scale to better align pricing with actual space and weight.
The NMFTA reclassifications will result in more precise cost assessments and influence service offerings. For instance, carriers will adjust their expedited rates based on the revised classifications so that costs reflect actual shipping characteristics rather than broad categories.
Shippers may also see new service tiers such as premium versus economy expedited as carriers fine-tune their offerings based on the new class structures.
Freight Capacity and Expedited Rates
One mitigating factor affecting expedited freight rates: Tariffs and a follow-on trade war could easily postpone what many had seen as a slow recovery from the so-called “freight recession.”
This two-year-plus decline in freight volumes has worked in favor of shippers and may continue to do so if overcapacity acts as a drag on rates. That’s a big plus considering that expedited rates can range anywhere from 2x to 5x standard ground freight.
Best Practices for Shippers to Stay Competitive
In 2025, shippers should strengthen carrier relationships to ensure priority access to expedited capacity. Dedicated partnerships with reliable carriers can provide guaranteed space, faster response times, and better rates for time-sensitive shipments.
Work with a 3PL solutions provider that uses real-time tracking to identify potential delays early and take corrective action before expedited freight is needed. If expedited is necessary, ensure your partner evaluates the most cost effective equipment and routes that will still meet the delivery requirements.
Be Prepared for Changes Affecting Expedited Freight
Market changes in 2025 will certainly impact expedited freight services. While pending tariffs on imports to the U.S. have caused a lot of front-loading of volume, boosting expedited rates, the new NMFTA freight classifications should lead to more accurate pricing as well as tiered expedited services.
COGISTICS Transportation, a logistics provider with a 30-year-plus legacy, offers shippers personalized treatment 24/7/365 across land, air, and ocean freight operations. Our top-flight expedited freight services, backed by a collaborative communication platform, consistently provide timely, secure, efficient deliveries. Each shipment is tracked from origin to destination, and notifications are sent via phone, text, or email based on your schedule.
Advanced data analytics allow COGISTICS Transportation to optimize routes, predict delays, and ensure faster deliveries. We can recommend the most efficient delivery options, helping you reduce costs and improve on-time performance.
To learn how COGISTICS Transportation can meet your logistics needs efficiently and cost effectively, get in touch with us today.
